Mortgage Interest Rate Update 4-12-2011 + Projected Trends & Today’s Best Mortgage Rates & Mortgage Quotes
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The Mortgage Street Smarts of where mortgage interest rates are going (and why):
The following information is current as of Tuesday 4-12-2011 and will help you understand todays best mortgage rates. If you are a Buyer/Borrower who is still on the fence (or if you are a Real Estate Agent attempting to educate your “on the fence” Buyer), please review these trends and secure an historically low interest rate before it is too late.
The market closed Monday with a NEUTRAL RESULT to pricing (and will typically warrant a pricing adjustment by most Lenders). Monday’s NEUTRAL RESULT netted a change of 0 basis points (bps).
The following chart shows the market activity thus far today (hint: upward activity is good, downward activity is bad):
The following chart shows market activity over the past 10 days (hint: green is good, red is bad):
The following chart shows market activity over the past 1 month:
Daily Interest Rate Snapshot (sample of rates from one of the country’s largest Lenders…individual pricing will vary based on specific Borrower qualifications): NOTE: This Lender has quoted a 1.00% Origination Fee (1 Point) to accompany this pricing. It bears noting that this chart does not necessarily represent todays best mortgage rates.
Market Commentary
Analyst #1 (Neil Trenerry):
FNMA 30-YR 4.5%
Opened down 0.03bp @ 101.156
Key Economic Data:
EUR / USD 1.4506 Up 0.0071
USD / JPY 84.1970 Down 0.4060
GBP / USD 1.6312 Down 0.0034
Oil 107.46 Down 2.56
Gold 1,462.90 Down 5.20
Key Economic News:
Less Improvement than expected
Trade balance improves less than expected, suggesting downside risk to GDP call.
Key Numbers:
Trade balance -$45.8bn in Feb vs. median ofrecast -$44.0bn.
Import prices +2.7% in March (mom) vs. median forecast +2.1.
Main Points:
1. Trade balance improved much less than expected in February, narrowing to -$45.8bn from a revised -$47.0bn in January. The “Chiese New Year effect” was much smaller than expected, with real goods imports declining by $4.5bn but less than half of the change due to manufactured goods imports. Meanwhile, exports were extremely weak, falling $3.7bn in real terms so that the real trade balance improved by less than $1bn. Through February, the trade data suggest a large drag on GDP growth in the first quarter and suggest downside risk to forcast of 2.5%.
2. Separately, import prices increased by 2.7% mom, reflecting increases in prices of fuels, other industrial supplies and materials, and agricultural products. Prices of finished consumer goods excluding autos declined by 0.2% mom after increasing by 0.5% in February. From a year ago, consumer goods import prices are up 0.3%. Prices of imports from China rose by 0.6% mom, the largets one-month gain since July 2008.
14:00: US budget balance for March. The CBO estimates that the March budget deficit increased by $124bn from the same month last year. The deterioration reflects technical factors, rather than a fundamental deterioration in government finances (last March, the Treasury made a one-time accounting change to the projected cost of the TARP).
CBO -$189bn; median forecast (of 28) -$189bn; last (March 2010) -$65.4BN.
14:15: Fedral Reserve Governor Daniel Tarullo testifies on regulatory issues.
Advice:
My posution on MBS stays neutral today.
Analyst #2 (Dan Rawitch)
Here is a link to our daily video
http://ratewatch.com/ratewatchnow.html
Japan’s nuclear crisis is now rated as the worst ever, putting it at parity with Cherynobal. This combined with our exports shrinking (not good for GDP) is finally getting some DOW recognition.
We have a three year auction later today which hopefully will go well and we can push bonds up and out of their current danger zone. I remain short term nervous and mid term hopeful on bond prices.
For more information on topics like this, please feel free to visit www.MortgageStreetSmarts.com (an educational resource for Borrowers, Real Estate Agents, and Financial Professionals). Educational content provided by:
Jason E. Gordon
Residential Mortgage Specialist
CMPS, CDPE, NMLS 259027
Office: 619-200-8031
Email: info@MortgageStreetSmarts.com
Online Application www.MortgageStreetSmarts.com
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