Mortgage Interest Rate Update 5-12-2011 + Projected Trends & Today’s Best Mortgage Rates & Mortgage Quotes
Have you subscribed to this free service yet? Feel free to forward this information to Buyers who are aggressively shopping for the best interest rates! All Real Estate Professionals & Consumers are advised to stay informed about interest rates and learn THE TRUTH BEHIND MORTGAGE QUOTES. Introducing an easy-to-follow inside look at mortgage rate activity, featuring charts, rate sheets, market commentary, and even video recordings all in one daily morning blog! Whether you’re a newbee, market analyst (or somewhere in between), keep yourself informed of where mortgage interest rates are going (and why). Subscribe to this free daily update by clicking the button on the right hand side of this page and always be aware of todays best mortgage rates.
The Mortgage Street Smarts of where mortgage interest rates are going (and why):
The following information is current as of Thursday 5-12-2011 and will help you understand todays best mortgage rates. If you are a Buyer/Borrower who is still on the fence (or if you are a Real Estate Agent attempting to educate your “on the fence” Buyer), please review these trends and secure an historically low interest rate before it is too late.
The market closed Wednesday with an IMPROVEMENT to pricing (and will typically warrant a pricing adjustment by most Lenders). Wednesday’s IMPROVEMENT resulted in a change of 44 basis points (bps).
The following chart shows the market activity for today (hint: upward activity is good, downward activity is bad):
The following chart shows market activity over the past 10 days (hint: green is good, red is bad):
The following chart shows market activity over the past 1 month:
Daily Interest Rate Snapshot (sample of rates from one of the country’s largest Lenders…individual pricing will vary based on specific Borrower qualifications): NOTE: This Lender has quoted a 1.00% Origination Fee (1 Point) to accompany this pricing. It bears noting that this chart does not necessarily represent todays best mortgage rates.
Market Commentary
Analyst #1 (Neil Trenerry):
FNMA 30-Yr 4.0%
Previous close 100.156
Opened Down 0.03bp @ 100.125
Key economic Data:
EUR / USD 1.4203 Up 0.0011
USD / JPY 80.8870 Down 0.1603
GBP / USD 1.6278 Down 0.0067
Oil 97.78 Down 0.43
Gold 1,498.20 Down 3.20
Key Economic News:
A Bit Weaker Than Expected
Today’s data point to a moderate softening in activity and a touch more inflation pressure, consistent with our recent forecast change. Although jobless claims declined sharply, they remain above levels 1-2 months ago. Core retail sales growth also cooled in April. Both headline and core producer prices rose more than expected.
KEY NUMBERS:
Retail sales +0.5% in Apr (mom) vs median forecast +0.6%.
Retail sales ex-autos +0.6% in Apr (mom) vs median forecast +0.6%.
PPI +0.8% in Apr (mom) vs median forecast +0.6%.
Core PPI +0.3% in Apr (mom) vs median forecast +0.2%.
Initial jobless claims 434k in week of May 7 vs median forecast 430k.
Continuing jobless claims 3.756m in week of Apr 30 vs median forecast 3.70m.
MAIN POINTS:
1. Jobless claims declined to 434,000 in the week of May 7, roughly in line with consensus expectations (and our own). As discussed in yesterday’s US Daily, the timing of school holidays-particularly in New York-explained a large part of the prior week’s increase. State-level data revealed this morning show an increase of more than 24k claims in New York in the week of April 30, which presumably reverted to normal in the week of May 7. Michigan and Wisconsin showed increases of about 4,000 each in the week of April 30-whether these relate to holiday issues or perhaps to slowing activity in the vehicle sector is less clear, as no industry detail was given, though Indiana and Ohio noted some vehicle-related layoffs. We continue to think that the four-week moving average (now almost 437k, versus 390,000 at the end of March) is a reasonably reliable gauge of the state of the labor market-this measure suggests some modest softening in the labor market but is still consistent with reasonable net employment gains.
2. Retail sales increased by 0.5% in April, slightly less than expected. Core retail sales – excluding autos, gasoline and building materials – increased by 0.2% mom after rising by 0.6% in March. The downshift reflected weaker spending on furniture, electronics, and sporting goods. The moderately weaker-than-expected core retail sales result implies some downside risk to our Q2 GDP forecast of 3.5% qoq ar. Revisions to earlier retail sales estimates (some of which were published earlier as part of an annual benchmarking process) imply a downward revision to consumer spending growth in Q1 of about 0.1 percentage point.
3. Headline producer prices increased by eight tenths in April, above the median forecast of six tenths. The increase was mainly driven by higher energy prices (+2.5%) as food prices are broadly unchanged (+0.3%). But core finished producer prices also rose ahead of expectations, up 0.3% on the month. The increase was broad based but included notable price increases in prices of passenger cars (+0.5%), trucks (+0.6%) and women’s apparel (+0.3%). At the intermediate stage of processing, the core index rose 1.1%. However, in recent years, the pass-through from intermediate to finished goods has not been all that tight.
9:30: Federal Reserve Chairman Ben Bernanke testifies to Senate Banking Committee on regulatory issues.
10:00: Business inventories (March). This business inventories report could imply revisions to the advance estimate of Q1 GDP if results for retail stocks differ from the Commerce Department’s assumptions.
Median forecast (of 45): +0.9%; last +0.5%.
20:00: Federal Reserve Chairman Ben Bernanke gives brief remarks at US-Mexico Chamber of Commerce.
Advice:
My position on MBS stays neutral today.
Analyst #2 (Dan Rawitch):
Here is the link to our daily video http://ratewatch.com/ratewatchnow.html
Lots of news today…some helpful and some not for bonds. Overall, it seems like we could be challenged to hold par based on what has been reported thus far. The auction yesterday provided a nice lift but I am nervous about today’s 30 year auction, because the yield is so much lower than last month.
If we get a great CPI number we should continue with our upward momentum. Watch carefully and be cautious right here.
For more information on topics like this, please feel free to visit www.MortgageStreetSmarts.com (an educational resource for Borrowers, Real Estate Agents, and Financial Professionals). Educational content provided by:
Jason E. Gordon
Residential Mortgage Specialist
CMPS, CDPE, NMLS 259027
Office: 619-200-8031
Email: info@MortgageStreetSmarts.com
Online Application www.MortgageStreetSmarts.com
Recommended Links:
Free Services include:
mortgage calculator for monthly principal + interest payment calculations
mortgage calculator for amortization schedule calculations
mortgage calculator to calculate how much you can borrow
mortgage calculator for debt consolidation calculation schedules and options
mortgage calculator for Reverse Mortgage loan options and calculations
- FHA Mortgage Loans in California
- VA Mortgage Loans in California
- Conventional Mortgage Loans in California
- Hard Money Mortgage Loans in California
- Reverse Mortgage Loans in California
- Ficos as low as 500 for First Time Home Buyers
- Additional Loan Options, including
- First Time Home Buyer Loans available in California
- Move Up Buyers looking to advance their real estate holdings
- Vacation Homes for the up and comers
- 2nd Home Loans with pricing as good as Primary Loans
- Investment Property Financing with 20% down
To see if you qualify (and to obtain a current market interest rate quote), click here for a secure online loan application form.
Calculate your monthly payments (and more) with our FREE ONLINE MORTGAGE CALCULATOR
mortgagestreetsmarts 